“If I knew then what I know now, I would not have voted for” the War on Terror, the War In Iraq, the War on Drugs, the War Against Poverty, the tax cuts of JFK, Reagan, Bush 43, etc., etc., etc., which is to say that if we were prescient or clairvoyant, none of us would ever make any mistakes. The latest in a long line of “if we knew then what we know now” statements about the war in Iraq was recently made by Hillary Clinton. But who ever knew “then what we know now” about anything in their experience? Anyone?
A lot of politicians are now saying they wouldn’t have voted for the war in Iraq if they knew then what they know now. What does that really mean? Like so many other slogans, it really doesn’t mean anything, other than as an effort to perpetuate the myth that President Bush had secret or privileged information about the situation in Iraq and that he lied to the nation during the runup to the war. Considering the fact that most leading politicians had access to the same information the President did, it’s amazing to me that they are now freely admitting that they were so easily duped and that they were not only uninformed but stupid.
“If I knew then what I know now” is not only a meaningless statement, it is inane.
Here are just some of the things most people probably would not have done in their personal lives if they knew then what they know now:
- Invested in the stock market (or a particular stock) just before the market dropped in value.
- Taken the course they failed in college
- Majored in the wrong studies in college, which they did not use in our chosen careers.
- Accepted a job offer that didn’t work out
- Married the person they later divorced
- Started or invested in a business that failed
- Knew the person they were lending money to or investing with was a con man or woman
- Bought a home or invested in real estate at the top of the market
- Had a child or children they didn’t want
The list could probably be endless. And, many situations are so difficult that they offer only a “Hobson’s choice,” which often requires choosing between complex and sometimes painful alternatives, where the outcome is likely to be bad no matter what happens. For example, would Americans have done any of the following differently “if they knew then what they know now”:
§ Landed on Normandy beach during D-Day, if they knew there would be 9,000 Allied casualties, with approximately one-third killed, in just a few days?
§ Attacked the island of Iwo Jima, if they knew there would be 26,000 Allied casualties (mostly American), with nearly 7,000 dead in just 35 days? The Japanese suffered 18,000 killed of 20,000 troops in the same battle.
§ Elected FDR if they knew he would ultimately approve uprooting and putting Japanese-American citizens in camps, which not only resulted in the loss of their freedom but their property and businesses as well.
§ Turned down Sudan’s offer to turn over Osama bin Laden to us if they knew he would ultimately be responsible for the attack on the World Trade Center?
§ Stood by while Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia and Poland if they knew he would subsequently attack England, the rest of Europe and Russia, killing millions of people in the process?
§ Allowed Hitler to attempt genocide by killing six million Jews and a million Gypsies?
§ Dropped the A-bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki if they knew it would cause the deaths of approximately 174,000 Japanese in the two cities? (NOTE: At the time, the estimate of possible casualties in an invasion of Japan, which had previously declared that they would not surrender, was around a million.)
Without doubt, the list could go on ad infinitum, but the question is, if we could look into the future, would we ever make any mistakes? Mistakes and misjudgments are learning experiences. Without them, there would be no improvements in anything: scientific advances, historical and social research, establishing small businesses that ultimately grow into major enterprises and employ thousands of people, the space program, the advancement of our laws and civil rights and, yes, warfare and fighting battles, the learning experience itself.
How else do we learn in school? Certainly not by avoiding all mistakes. I would say the opposite is the case, that we usually learn from them. We may study hard and try to get the highest possible scores on exams, but how often have you learned more or an important lesson as a result of answering a question incorrectly or taking the wrong course of action?
Who can possibly believe that mankind could have achieved its present advanced state, as imperfect as it may be, without having made any mistakes along the way?
“Knowing then what we know now” is really the province of G-d, Allah, or other “higher power,” and it’s worth noting, I think, that “higher powers” do not intervene to protect us from ourselves. As a matter of fact, most people who are strong believers in G-d or “the almighty” do not expect it. They may ask (pray) for help, for themselves or others or for larger purposes, but they don’t expect to be prevented from making their own mistakes.
No one ever told me life was easy or that I would never make any mistakes. I didn’t expect it to be, and I suspect that’s true of just about everyone else. And, I sure didn’t think I would never make any mistakes. As a matter of fact, my life has been so riddled with them that I’ve lost count. But I’ve learned many valuable lessons as a result.
So, the next time someone tells you they would not have done something “if they knew then what they know now,” you might ask them if they ever made any mistakes and what they learned from them.
